Snapshots That Wow!
Shopping, powered by Shopify!
$292bn worth of GMV was powered by shopify enabled e-com
brand websites. Even as that number is staggering, it is just a
shade above one third of Amazon’s GMV!
Source: Company Presentation
Rates will remain too damn high!
“On the supply front, active listings of new homes are
increasing at the fastest pace we’ve seen in years, up 13.7%
YoY. The “lock-in effect” seems to be abating as many
homeowners looking to move are growing tired of waiting
for mortgage rates to come down.
And while still higher than a year ago, US home price
increases are now decelerating at a rapid clip, showing a 2%
increase over the prior year. If supply continues to increase at
the current rate, this could translate into YoY price declines by
the summer.”
Source: Redfin
A technical recession
US real output noted a decline due almost entirely to the
enormous decline in net exports (-4.8%), with companies
pulling forward their international purchases in advance of
the expected tariffs. The Federal Government was also a
negative detractor (-0.3%), presumably due to the DOGE cuts.
Not a real recession as yet even though their consumer
company earnings suggests a slowdown.
Source: Company Presentation
China + 1- the most marketed lie in financial markets
The China+1 narrative in a post covid world has been a
smokescreen so far with China’s trade surplus having doubled
in the past five years!
Source: FT
WTH WFH!
“The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed
securities (CMBS) for offices rose to 10.3% in April, near the
highest on record.
Delinquency rates on these loans are now up 9 percentage
points over the last 3 years
By comparison, delinquency rates hit 10.7% at the post-2008
peak.”
Source: Kobeissi Letter
Everyone is a Japan at some point; some price
The most common example cited for no returns in equity
market is the Japanese markets topping out in 1990-91. Yet
stock markets around the world can go and have gone a long,
long time with no returns.
Decades, even.
Source: UBS